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Forecasting Nonsense

Tuesday, September 8, 2026

Alternate Title – “The Limits of “Science.”  Second Alternate Title – “Politics Can Screw Up Anything.”  Someone else has finally noticed that Scientific American is trying really hard to be Politico.  I noticed it long ago and have commented on it since.  A great deal of the problem is, I think, epistemological, not scientific.  Well, that and the fact that some people are just scoundrels.. . .

The Fruit Of Our Labor

Monday, September 7, 2026

According to the U.S. Department of Labor, ” Labor Day is an annual celebration of the social and economic achievements of American workers.”  So we have a national holiday to celebrate work.  But we also have an entire national bureaucracy that enables those that don’t work.  It is a fascinating juxtaposition.. . .

The Winning Message

Friday, September 4, 2026

This morning, for the first time in weeks, none of the stuff I looked through contained a headline about Abdul El-Sayed.  I think that disproves a theory I have been working on.  But it also proves something wonderful about the American people.. . .

Government By Spite

Thursday, September 3, 2026

Yesterday Jim Geraghty looked at the likelihood that should Dems take both houses in November, impeachment proceedings against Trump are inevitable.  Notably missing from the entire conversation is precisely what “high crime or misdemeanor” the President would be accused of – apparently it doesn’t matter.  They just have a mechanism to get the man out of office and they intend to use it.  Like the entire litigatory history on the East Wing/ballroom – it is about spite, not law.. . .

When We Were Individuals, Not Categories

Wednesday, September 2, 2026

I am not sure care for the aged is a career I would pursue.  We are in the tail of the baby boom curve now and as people like me die off – which will happen well before the end of the working life of the average current college student –  the opportunities in the field are going to decline.  But apparently you can study how to care for the elderly in college, and like most other fields of study, it is becoming heavily politicized.. . .

What We Fear

Tuesday, September 1, 2026

What we choose to fear, and not to fear, is sometimes astonishing.  I started thinking about this yesterday when I wrote about AI.  AI is a thing – a thing we made – any mischief or evil that might flow from it is of our creation.  The thing to fear is us, not it.  That applies in a lot of situations.. . .

Human Lessons From AI Behavior

Monday, August 31, 2026

So, a bunch of AI’s attacked some AI called “Hugging Face” and now some people are concerned that Skynet is weeks away.  The more I read, the more I think the incident is far more reflective of humanity than it is our efforts to build artificial minds.. . .

When The World Is Just Crazy

Sunday, August 30, 2026

It has not been a happy week.  We began the week looking at the negative effects the advance of some Islamic expressions is having.  We turned to looking at how our politics rob us of our happiness and our mourning.  We looked at the apparent poor mental health of so many and then – California.  To put a cherry on that sundae, Dolly Parton died – and where I live, where she grew up, that is simply a bright light extinguished.  As I have reflected on this week just passed, a Psalm came to mind and I reflect on how the psalmist seems to have something for every time and place.. . .

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