Control of Senate might hinge on liberal Muslim in Michigan

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(The Center Square) — Democratic hopes of taking control of the U.S. Senate in the upcoming midterm elections are heavily dependent on retaining an open seat in Michigan.

The race features a charismatic and energetic though controversial liberal Democrat — and also the first Muslim nominated by a major party for the post — against an Old Guard Republican who had blamed President Donald Trump for the U.S. Capitol attack in 2021.

The Republican, former seven-term Congressman Mike Rogers, narrowly lost a similar Senate bid two years ago when Trump carried the state.

This time he faces Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, an epidemiologist who had been health director for Detroit and Wayne County. El-Sayed lost a Democratic primary for governor in 2018 but won the Senate primary this year when he defeated Congresswoman Haley Stevens, a moderate.

"Voters were hungry for a more confrontational message against the Trump administration," said Jonathan Hanson, a University of Michigan political scientist. "There's a lot of pent-up frustration and anger among Democrats for their own party not being sufficiently vigorous in fighting Trump, and Stevens, while she votes how they would like her to vote, she didn't seem to convey that anger, that sort of fighting spirit that voters were looking for."

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat, has said a route to Democratic control of the Senate "clearly goes through Michigan."

Despite being wildly outspent by Stevens' campaign and her out-of-state supporters, El-Sayed polled well ahead of Stevens leading into the primary. However, he won by a much slimmer 1 percentage point.

Hanson suspects some Democrat voters ultimately chose Stevens because they thought she would be more electable in November. Polls showed that Stevens had a better chance at beating Rogers.

Shortly after El-Sayed's primary win, the National Republican Senatorial Committee paid for television ads that used El-Sayed's full name — Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed — and referred to him as a "radical."

A Pew Research Center survey this year found that about 42% of U.S. adults think American Muslims are having a negative impact on the country, and about half say Islam encourages violence more than other religions.

Television attack ads in Michigan against El-Sayed most often point to his affiliation with an online streamer who has been derided for statements that included: "America deserved 9/11, dude."

'Biggest unforced error'

The streamer, Hasan Piker, appeared with El-Sayed at two college campus rallies in April. Piker has millions of followers on Twitch but has been criticized as anti-Semitic and anti-American by people who disagree with him.

"Every time Piker says something, El-Sayed gets forced to comment on it," Hanson told The Center Square. "In my mind this is the biggest unforced error he has committed in his campaign."

El-Sayed bristles at questions about Piker. When The Center Square asked him last week whether it was a mistake to invite Piker to his rallies, El-Sayed did not directly answer the question but said: "This race is not about a streamer in California. This race is about gas prices and grocery prices in Michigan."

He elaborated further in an appearance last week on FOX 2 television news in Detroit.

"The reason I talk to Hasan isn't because of Hasan," he said. "It's because of the 3 million people who pay attention to what he has to say. And I think it's important to be able to offer those folks a pathway back into our politics. I believe in a politics where we actually show up and talk to each other, even if we disagree."

El-Sayed also apologized in August for his own response to a March synagogue attack in the Detroit area, when a man rammed the building with a vehicle and opened fire before killing himself. Several of the man's relatives had reportedly been killed by an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon.

El-Sayed's critics said he was justifying the violence when he said, "Hurt people hurt people," shortly after the attack.

Jewish opposition in the race

Jewish leaders are wary of him.

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee spent about $30 million to support El-Sayed's opponent in the primary, which was about a third of what was spent overall in the high-dollar race.

It's not yet clear whether the culture war waged by El-Sayed's critics will succeed. Voters who spoke to The Center Square were more concerned about how the candidates will tackle the problems they face.

"We've heard enough about Israel," said Chip Clarke, who works with at-risk youth in the Detroit area. "And that's an important issue, but not to a Black man in Detroit."

For Clarke, that means addressing "education, how we're going to change it, and how we're going to recreate the starter homes so that people like myself can start a family, can take care of a family and have dignity and be a part of that American dream that we all love so much."

Clarke said he was disappointed Rogers did not join El-Sayed for what was supposed to be a debate hosted by FOX 2 last week. Both candidates have agreed to attend debates next month, but the FOX 2 event was the only one that had been scheduled to happen before the start of mail-in voting. Rogers bowed out saying the moderator was not impartial.

"He's a coward," El-Sayed told reporters after the event. "And he knows that the minute that he and I actually have to share the same stage and share podiums, he's not going to have much to say. Because at the end of the day, I'm going to hold him accountable to his record, which is awful on all the things."

Rather than debate Rogers, El-Sayed fielded questions from a FOX 2 host and the audience. His most substantive policy idea is government-provided healthcare coverage for all, which he said could be funded by additional taxes on the ultra rich.

Rogers' campaign did not respond to several requests to comment from The Center Square for this article.

In recent television ads, Rogers bemoans the price difference for certain prescription drugs in Canada and the United States, claiming "pharmaceutical companies are ripping American families off."

When he was a congressman, Rogers opposed allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices with manufacturers, arguing that free-market competition would keep prices low.

A 'tolerable' Republican

After the 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol — which happened when Congress was poised to certify President Joe Biden's win over Trump in the 2020 general election — Rogers accused Trump of provoking the violence.

He said the incident had broken the "spell" Trump had over his supporters, and after Trump was reported to have privately admitted his role in the attack, Rogers said: "Well, you're damn right you had responsibility for this," according to CNN.

But Trump continues to have significant Republican support.

"He said some very negative things about Trump," Hanson, the political scientist, said. "He clearly was not on board with Trump's rise in the Republican Party, but he's changed his tune quite dramatically. Basically, after he decided to run for Senate, he started being fully on board with Trump and singing his praises."

"He's not beloved by the MAGA wing of the party, but he's tolerable to them," Hanson added, referring to Trump's fervent Make America Great Again supporters.

Given voters' displeasure with the currently high living costs — especially for fuel and groceries — the Senate race in Michigan would typically favor the out-of-power Democrats by 4 or 5 percentage points, Hanson said. The race will be close if Rogers' warnings about El-Sayed resonate with voters.

"Rogers is basically running a campaign that says El-Sayed is an extremist, he's dangerous, and I'm a regular Michigander who's going to represent you well," Hanson said.

Meredith Pavlov, a stay-at-home mother in the Detroit area, said she wants to hear more about the candidates' stances on important issues and that people she talks to are tired of political attack ads.

"The biggest issues right now are the war in Iran and prices — gas prices are rising, prices of food are rising — but also the ability to unite Americans," she told The Center Square.

Michigan residents are also more sensitive to Trump's trade disputes with Canada, which shares borders with the state, Hanson said.

"The border crossing between Detroit and Windsor ... there's just thousands of trucks constantly going through back and forth, a lot of it auto-industry related, and these fights with Canada, they're bad for all the northern states, and it's not good for Michigan's economy at all," Hanson said.

Control of Congress

Republicans are unlikely to retain full control of Congress in the November election, according to political observers.

The U.S. House is the easiest climb for Democrats — they need to flip only three seats.

In the Senate, which has far fewer members, Democrats need four seats. A win in Michigan is crucial.

"It's super consequential for the Democratic hopes of retaking the Senate," Hanson said. "If they can't retain the seat in Michigan, the path to getting a majority becomes really, really difficult."

Another wrinkle: Sen. John Fetterman. The pro-Israel Pennsylvania Democrat has made regular appearances on conservative news outlets such as Fox News to criticize far-left Democrats and has voted with Republicans on key issues. This month he appeared by video at the Republican Party convention in Dallas.

Hanson and others predict Fetterman will switch party affiliation, but Fetterman has strongly rejected that idea in recent days.