Poll: Gas prices will influence Arizona voters

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(The Center Square) - Gas prices in Arizona will affect how state residents vote in November, with Democrats potentially picking up more votes, according to a new poll.

Noble Predictive Insights released a poll showing that gas prices will influence how 68% of Arizonans vote in the general election.

The poll found 90% of Arizona voters are concerned about the gas prices in the state.

As of Tuesday, Arizona had an average gas price of $4.78, which puts the state among the 10 jurisdictions with the highest prices, according to AAA. The national average is $4.49. 

According to the poll, 75% of Democratic voters in Arizona are very concerned about gas prices. Compared to the other groups, 63% of independents and 54% of Republicans are very concerned about gas prices.

Mike Noble, Noble Predictive Insights' CEO, told the Center Square that hyper partisanship in American politics played a factor in the poll numbers.

If gas prices continue to remain high in Arizona until Election Day in November, Noble said it would benefit Democrats over Republicans. He said that's because of blame being put on the Republicans controlling the White House and Congress for the state of the economy.

The poll found that 80% of Arizona voters said the high gas prices are impacting their household finances. Ninety percent of voters ages 18 to 29 said high gas prices have affected their finances a great deal. On top of this, the poll found 88% of Hispanic voters were greatly affected by rising gas prices.

Among Arizona’s white voters, 77% said their finances were impacted a great deal by rising gas prices in recent months.

Compared with Arizona's white demographic, Noble said Hispanics “are more price sensitive.”

“They typically have less disposable income,” he added.

The top issues Arizonans care about, such as housing affordability and economic conditions, tend to impact Hispanics harder, Noble said.

NPI released a poll earlier in May showing that U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Gilbert, has a 30-point lead over U.S. Rep. David Schweikert, R-Scottsdale. The poll also found Hobbs leading Biggs and Schweikert in hypothetical general election matchups.

According to Noble, gubernatorial candidates should not be focusing on social issues currently, but rather on pocketbook issues.

“Voters are saying they’re getting squeezed right now financially,” Noble said, adding that they want solutions and do not want politicians to “sweep it under the rug.”

NPI's poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%. 

Gas prices have climbed since the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran started Feb. 28.

Aldo Vazquez, AAA’s Mountain West Group public relations manager, told The Center Square by email that “crude oil prices have the biggest impact on the price of gas, accounting for roughly 60% of the price at the pump.”

“Because oil is a global commodity, prices tend to spike during sudden market changes, such as natural disasters, geopolitical tensions, oil refinery issues, or major disruptions in fuel transportation,” Vazquez said.

“While seasonal gasoline blends also play a factor, disruptions to the oil market will have the biggest impact on fuel costs," he added.