Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary a dead heat, poll says

Voters are filing into polling locations Tuesday in Arizona. Will the Republican primary for governor be a close race?

Where several state polls profiling the GOP race for governor do not, a recent Emerson College poll says so.

The poll released on July 31 shows Karrin Taylor Robson leading a neck-and-neck race against fellow Republican Kari Lake, who has former president Donald Trump's endorsement.

Taylor Robson has 47% support, and Lake has 46%. The other two candidates mustered just 3% support, while 4% of voters considered themselves undecided.

"A stark age divide exists within the Republican gubernatorial primary." Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, noted in a press release. "Voters under 50 break for Lake by 20 points, voters between 50 and 64 are split: 46% support Lake and 45% Taylor Robson, and voters over 65 break for Taylor Robson by a 19-point margin."

One's views of the 2020 presidential election also are a strong indicator of who they support in this race, according to the poll.

"Among those who are more likely to vote for a candidate who maintains Trump won in 2020, Lake holds 76%, and among those who are less likely to vote for a candidate who maintains Trump won, Taylor Robson holds 79%," Kimball said in the release. "For those who say it makes no difference on their vote, Taylor Robson leads Lake by eleven points, 52% to 41%."

This polling result is much different than the Arizona Public Opinion Pulse poll released last week. In it, Lake held a commanding 51% to 33% lead over Robson. It showed that Lake had expanded her early July lead in the race by eight points (39% to 31%) to 18 points. Taylor Robson closes that gap significantly when isolating respondents that communicated via phone. Pollster Brian Noble attributed this to Taylor Robson's outsized television ad push reaching older voters who prefer a phone call over texting.

Meanwhile, a Data Orbital poll released last week indicated Lake had an 11-point lead over Robson (43.5% to 32.4%). Yet, a Public Opinion Strategies poll conducted by Robson's campaign around the same time said that both candidates had 43% support.

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