Poll: Biggs increases lead in Arizona GOP primary race

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(The Center Square) - A new poll showed U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Gilbert, increasing his lead in the Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary race.

Noble Predictive Insights released a poll showing that Biggs was up 21 points over U.S. Rep. David Schweikert, R-Scottsdale.

In December 2025, Biggs led the race by only 4 points, but saw his lead increase after Karrin Taylor Robson left the contest last month.

Mike Noble, NPI’s CEO, told The Center Square that Biggs jumping ahead in the poll “surprised a lot of people,” especially people in Arizona who are watching the race.

However, Noble said this should not come as a surprise because Biggs announced his candidacy in January 2025 and Schweikert waited until October 2025.

President Donald Trump previously endorsed both Taylor Robson and Biggs for the Arizona governor’s race.

The NPI poll found Biggs has a 21-point advantage over Schweikert in backing from Trump supporters.

Noble pointed out that Biggs is “not very far from the coveted 50% threshold.”

Even with Bigg’s leading Schweikert, 41% of Arizona registered Republicans still have not made up their mind on who they will vote for, the poll found.

According to the NPI poll, Gov. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, is in the lead over Biggs and Schweikert in hypothetical gubernatorial matchups. 

In a race against Biggs, Hobbs leads him by 5 points. Against Schweikert, the governor is up 9 points.

Both hypothetical matchups show 16% of Arizona registered voters are undecided and third-party candidates are taking 5% of the vote.

“Hobbs is running away with this contest, although with no competitive primary to speak of – she has to feel good about the position she is currently in,” Noble said.

He told The Center Square that Hobbs’ support numbers have not changed much, unlike the Republican Party’s.

“The Republican brand is suffering a little with the cost-of living-issues and a lot of the economic uncertainty right now,” he said.

According to Noble, the candidate who receives the support of undecided voters will have communicated best on economic and immigration issues.

Pocketbook issues will be the topic that pushes those undecided voters “one way or another,” he said.

The poll found a gender gap among the candidates.

Women supported Hobbs 45% to 30% while men backed Biggs 44% to 39%, the poll said.

The gender gap shows a “deep polarization” with women supporting Democrats and men backing Republicans, the CEO stated.  

According to Noble, he expects the gender gap to continue to widen as the race goes on.

Noble noted in Arizona, women vote more often than men. He added that they tend to have a “2 to 4 point edge” over males.

Hobbs is a better-known candidate than Biggs or Schweikert, he said.

“They still have some ground to make up [in] introducing themselves and the electorate learning about them,” Noble stated.

The CEO said Republicans are doing better with older voters in Arizona, while Democrats are doing better with younger voters.

Middle-aged voters are where “the battle’s going to take place,” he noted.

Noble added the Arizona governor’s race will be “very competitive.”

NPI’s poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.06%.