Poll: Democratic incumbents lead statewide races in Arizona

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(The Center Square) - Democratic incumbents, including Attorney General Kris Mayes, are leading major statewide races in Arizona, according to a new poll.

Noble Predictive Insights released a poll showing that Democrats serving as attorney general and secretary of state are ahead of their Republican challengers.

Mayes is beating Senate President Warren Petersen, R-Gilbert, by 6 points among Arizona's likely voters: 44% to 38%. Secretary of State Adrian Fontes is also up on state Rep. Alex Kolodin, R-Fountain Hills, by 6 points: 41% to 35%.

NPI CEO Mike Noble said it is a “bad environment” for Republicans currently campaigning due to the GOP brand being unpopular.

In addition, the Democratic incumbents for attorney general and secretary of state did not have primary opponents, have done a good job of raising money and are strategically in a better position than Republican candidates, Noble told The Center Square.

The poll showed Mayes having an advantage in independent voters over Petersen: 44% to 20%. But the poll also showed 32% of independent voters remain undecided.

In total, the poll found 16% of voters undecided about their pick for attorney general.

Delaney Corcoran, the campaign manager for Mayes, said the race between the attorney general and Petersen “is going to be one of the closest races in the country."

Corcoran told The Center Square in an email that Mayes won her last race by only 280 votes, which means the attorney general will take “nothing for granted.”

“Every day, we’re making sure Arizonans know the facts: Petersen supports a policy that left 340,000 Arizonans without health insurance, is taking dark money from companies AG Kris Mayes has taken to court to protect Arizonans, and is too extreme and partisan to lead our state. Arizonans deserve better,” Corcoran said.

The Center Square reached out to the Petersen campaign, but did not hear back before publication time.

In the secretary of state’s race, Fontes has a large lead among independent voters: 42% to 16%, the poll said.

"Fontes has built a clear advantage, and independents are a major reason why," Noble said. "But with one in five likely voters overall and roughly one in three independents still undecided, Kolodin still has room to change the race."

Fontes said he feels great about his campaign because voters know he will protect their right to vote by mail while his opponent would make them stand in line.

“I will continue to protect sensitive voter privacy from illegal demands, defend vote-by-mail, and I will ensure we enforce existing state election laws, unlike my opponent, who is a bona fide election denier,” Fontes told The Center Square in an email.

Kolodin played a role in the 2020 efforts to change the outcome of Arizona’s presidential election, in which Donald Trump lost to Joe Biden.

According to Fontes, the secretary of state's race “will be close.”

“That is why I am campaigning across the state, talking with voters in every party about the great things my office has accomplished over the last four years: enforced voter ID, statewide ballot tracking, reduced red tape for businesses and increased confidence in elections," he added.

Kolodin dismissed the poll's importance.

"There are plenty of fake polls designed to sway public opinion," Koldin told The Center Square Tuesday night in an email. "Our campaign is focused on talking with actual voters and winning this election."

The poll found Republican Kimberly Yee is leading her Democratic opponent, Teresa Leyba Ruiz, in the race to become the next Arizona superintendent of public instruction. Yee, currently the state treasurer, defeated Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Horne in the Republican primary.

"Younger voters favor Ruiz. Older voters favor Yee," Noble told The Center Square. "Independents remain unsettled, and neither candidate has enough of an advantage to coast."

Ruiz is beating Yee among voters ages 18 to 29: 42% to 33%, the poll showed.

But Yee is defeating Ruiz 46% to 32% among those ages 45 to 64, according to the poll. 

For voters over 65, Yee is up on Ruiz by 3 points: 42% to 39%.

Twenty percent of voters are still undecided in this race, according to the poll.

Yee said she is “pleased with the current momentum of the campaign.”

“However, we’re not taking a single vote for granted and will continue to work hard to earn the vote of every Arizonan regardless of party,” Yee told The Center Square in an email.

The Center Square reached out to Ruiz’s campaign, but did not hear back before publication time.

The poll’s margin of error is +/- 3.23%.