Op-Ed: Arizona should reject National Popular Vote and retain its unique voice

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Republicans currently control the Arizona House and Senate by a razor-thin margin, yet have managed to pass key legislation through both chambers. Even when good bills pass the legislature, they are almost guaranteed to be vetoed by Gov. Katie Hobbs. She has vetoed more legislation than any governor in Arizona history, earning the nickname “veto queen." She even vetoed a resolution in support of the Electoral College. Now, Arizona Democrats may take control of the legislature, with some planning to push through the National Popular Vote interstate compact (NPV). 

Their plot to manipulate the Electoral College could silence Arizona voters, but some partisans don’t care. And rather than share their plans now, they are keeping quiet until after Election Day.

This is the same playbook used in Virginia earlier this year. Virginia became the latest state to join the NPV plan when Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger signed it into law. Lobbyists for NPV knew that former Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin would not sign it, and even some legislative Democrats opposed it. But with the election of more extreme Democrats, including Gov. Spanberger, they saw their chance. Democrats rushed to push through NPV along with dozens of other election law changes.

Right now, 18 states and the District of Columbia have joined the NPV agreement. They have pledged to award their electoral votes to the winner of the nationwide popular vote, but only if the compact gains enough states that they control 270 electoral votes. The compact currently sits at 222 electoral votes. If it does take effect, the Electoral College would still exist but would be converted into a mechanism for electing the president by a national popular vote. Barring a Supreme Court intervention, our nation would lose the state-by-state electoral system that has elected every American president since George Washington in 1789.

Opponents of the Electoral College object to the attention that swing states receive, but Arizona is the perfect example of how swing states benefit all Americans and also change over time. From the early 1950s until 2016, Arizona voters consistently voted for Republican presidential candidates (besides when Clinton narrowly won the state in 1996). As the state became more balanced, it attracted more attention. And the attention given to groups of Arizona voters also benefits similar voters who happen to live in other states. Today, both major parties invest heavily in Arizona every election cycle. Despite this, NPV advocates remain determined to take away control of Arizona’s eleven electoral votes.

During the 2024 presidential cycle, Kamala Harris visited cities like Douglas and Sierra Vista, while Donald Trump held rallies in Bullhead City and Prescott Valley. If NPV takes effect, future presidential candidates will focus exclusively on Phoenix, and perhaps Tucson if they are feeling generous. Small-town and rural Arizonans will be completely ignored in favor of more attention for giant media markets like Los Angeles, New York, and Chicago.

NPV lobbyists have targeted Arizona for years. Before legislators fully understood the compact, they had more success. A dozen years ago, some Republican legislators supported it, earning the ire of their constituents. Republican voters, it turns out, strongly support our republican form of government. And as Democrats have looked more closely at the text of NPV, they also have seen the serious risks that could result from trying to manipulate the Electoral College and cobble together an ad hoc national popular vote. The most extreme progressives are not interested in the details and appear dead set on attacking the Electoral College by any means at hand, including NPV.

Once the dust settles after the midterms, the situation on the ground will become much clearer. But no matter what happens, it is of the utmost importance that Arizonans stand up to defend the Electoral College and our unique voice in the presidential election process.