Poll: Taylor Robson widens lead ahead of GOP primary

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(The Center Square) - Karrin Taylor Robson has seen her lead increase among candidates in the 2026 Arizona GOP gubernatorial primary, a new poll shows. 

Noble Predictive Insights released a poll showing Taylor Robson 10 points ahead of competitor U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Gilbert, with a lead of 37% to 27%.

In May, the previous NPI poll showed Taylor Robson leading Biggs by 7 percentage points. 

If she wins the primary, she will do better than she did in 2022 when she lost to Kari Lake in the 2022 GOP gubernatorial primary. Lake went on to lose to Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, who is expected to be the Democratic nominee again in 2026.

Taylor Robson said the new poll “confirms” what she has been seeing along her campaign stops, which is that her movement is growing. 

“With President Trump’s endorsement, the earliest media buy in AZ Gubernatorial history, record-breaking fundraising, and grassroots momentum in every corner of Arizona, our campaign is built to win,” she said.

President Donald Trump endorsed both Biggs and Taylor Robson.

Although the poll showed Taylor Robson leading Biggs, 36% of respondents remained undecided. The margin of error for this poll was plus or minus 4.99%.

The poll noted Taylor Robson is doing well among Republicans over age 65. These voters preferred her over Biggs by 13 percentage points, with 41% supporting her and 28% supporting Biggs.

Furthermore, the poll found Taylor Robson is doing better than Biggs with what are described as “Trump first” Republicans. The findings showed she had a 4-point advantage in this category: 33% to 29%.

Besides these two voter groups, Taylor Robson also leads in “Party-first” Republicans. The poll showed that she was up 42% to 28% among these voters, representing a 14-point difference. 

Taylor Robson is “playing a very different game than last cycle,” Mike Noble, NPI CEO, said.

“She’s running ads touting Trump’s endorsement while also solidifying support among more Traditional Republicans. That combination is giving her an early edge,” he explained. 

Noble added Taylor Robson “may have the early edge, but Arizona primaries are never won in the opening rounds.”

“Biggs isn’t going anywhere, and this matchup is on track to be a slug-fest between two heavyweights all the way to the finish,” Noble said. 

These poll numbers may change in the future for both candidates as another Arizona Republican is considering a run for governor. In August, Axios reported that U.S. Rep. David Schweikert, R-Phoenix, may run for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. 

The congressman had not yet made up his mind, Chris Baker, a campaign consultant for Schweikert, told Axios.

The NPI poll did not show what the race would look like if Schweikert were to get involved in it. 

Who will win the general election remains unclear, according to the poll. The survey found Biggs or Taylor Robson is in a statistical tie with Hobbs due to the margin of error. 

Noble said Taylor Robson is better positioned than Biggs "to keep Republicans unified and remain competitive with independents."

He explained Biggs “risks alienating key segments of the broader electorate that Republicans will need to win statewide.”

The date for the Arizona GOP gubernatorial primary is Aug. 4, 2026.