Expert: Schweikert, Trump add drama to gubernatorial race

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(The Center Square) - Poll expert Mike Noble says U.S. Rep. David Schweikert’s entrance into the Arizona GOP gubernatorial primary has turned the race from "somewhat interesting" to "very interesting."

Noble, who is CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, said the race has become more exciting because President Donald Trump has endorsed both Karrin Taylor Robson and U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Gilbert, with Schweikert, R-Scottsdale, entering the race in the “conservative lane."

Primaries for the Democrats and Republicans will take place on Aug. 4, 2026. The parties' winners will square off in the Nov. 3, 2026 general election.

If the GOP primary race were just between Schweikert and one Trump-backed candidate, Schweikert would not do well in the race, Noble told The Center Square.

A question Schweikert will have to answer, according to Noble, is whether being a “conservative Republican” is still a thing. Noble described a “conservative Republican” as an “old school Republican before the populism.”

“Is there still this conservative portion left? The party has definitely shifted,” Noble said.

He said that when Arizona Republicans ran as “conservative Republicans,” they dominated statewide elections. Noble pointed out since the Arizona GOP has gone in a populist direction, it has lost two Senate seats and a governor’s race. 

“ I'm not saying one's better than the other. I just know when it comes to general election winning, one definitely performs better than the other,” he noted.

NPI released a poll in August regarding the primary that showed Taylor Robson ahead of Biggs by 10 points. The poll found that 37% of people were still undecided. Schweikert had not entered the race yet, so this poll did not factor in his candidacy. 

Schweikert’s resume aligns closer with Biggs over Taylor Robson because they are long-serving congressional members and both fiscal and social conservatives, Noble noted.  

He said he guessed Schweikert would pull more votes away from Biggs than from Taylor Robson.

Taylor Robson and Biggs are not “similar candidates,” but Arizona voters are treating them like “generic candidates,” the CEO explained.

According to Noble, 89% of Biggs' primary voters would support Taylor Robson against Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, who recently announced her re-election campaign. But Noble added only 81% of Taylor Robson's primary voters would vote for Biggs over Hobbs. 

Two factions exist within the Republican party: Trump supporters and GOP supporters, Noble said. Taylor Robson has a 14-point advantage over Biggs with traditional GOP supporters, NPI’s August poll stated. 

On top of this, Trump supporters favor Taylor Robson by 4 percentage points over Biggs, too, the NPI poll found.

Noble said many people think this is the “most surprising number” due to Biggs' history of supporting Trump, which included challenging the results of the 2020 presidential election.

A big factor in determining the outcome of the primary race will be money, Noble said. 

The CEO said one of the main factors for Taylor Robson driving her numbers up is the fact that she has spent a “good amount of money.” Her campaign has already spent over $2 million on ads, Noble said. 

Broadcast spending really “moves the needle in these bigger elections,” Noble said.

Taylor Robson’s ads have focused on two main messages: border security and her loyalty to Trump, he said. These two messages are the top issues for Arizona Republican primary voters, Noble explained.

Last week Taylor Robson announced last week that she has raised almost $2 million and has nearly $1 million cash on hand. 

Also, last week, Biggs stated he raised $564,000 and had over $630,187 cash on hand. 

Noble said another challenge for Schweikert is money.

He questioned whether Schweikert would be able to secure enough resources to convey why he is different from the Trump-endorsed candidates and why people should vote for him.

Noble called both Schweikert and Boggs both decent fundraisers. He added he wondered if Biggs could allocate enough resources to convey his message effectively.

According to Noble, Schweikert would be in the same polling range as Taylor Robson and Biggs in the race against Hobbs. The August NPI poll found Taylor Robson and Biggs were in a statistical tie with the governor because both hypothetical matchups fell within the poll’s margin of error. 

Noble said he thinks Taylor Robson is the top candidate from an electability standpoint, followed by Schweikert and Biggs.  

A factor in the race is Hobbs not having any competition in the Democratic primary, Noble said. Last week, Hobbs said she raised $12 million for the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial race even before she announced her re-election campaign. 

While Republicans are competing against each other, Hobbs can just sit there and hold her money until six or seven months before the election, just like U.S. Sens. Ruben Gallego and Mark Kelly, both D-Arizona, did in their races, Noble noted. 

“ By the time it came to when Republicans got out of their primary and finally attacked them, they were so armored up that the attacks just bounced off," Noble said. "And, [Democrats] have had a really good success run with that strategy."