Mesa’s $449 million school bond measure draws criticism

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(The Center Square) – A potential bond measure that would cost Mesa taxpayers $449 million is drawing criticism from education analysts across Arizona.

That’s because Proposition 419, which would chip in roughly a third of the $1.4 billion in Mesa Public Schools' capital needs, has some wondering whether such a large investment is prudent right now.

Much of that critique comes from the state’s largest school district seeing an enrollment decline. The district has 51,093 students, down 11.8% from the same point in 2022, with officials making an even bleaker projection for the future due to America's declining birth rate.

Mesa district officials have projected a 25% drop in enrollment by 2035, according to the Mesa Tribune, dropping to just under 39,200 students if current rates don’t change.

Under the terms of Prop. 419, 70% of all funding would go toward improving the district’s facilities, including all heating, ventilating, air conditioning, plumbing, and electrical and structural work. From there, there would be an estimated 15% for site-based projects and 10% for “safety, security and technology infrastructure." The remaining 5% would go to the district’s Career and Technical Education program.

To pay for the bond, the district plans on imposing an 81-cent tax on $100 of home value, meaning a $400,000 house in the district would be assessed an annual increase of $324 per year.

Questions raised

Officials from the Mesa Public Schools did not return The Center Square's requests for comment on Prop. 419, but others talked about their concerns.

Katie Ratlief, who serves as the executive director of non-partisan research organization Common Sense Institute of Arizona, told The Center Square that Mesa residents will have to think long and hard about whether now is the right time to pass a $449 million bond.

“Their buildings can currently house about 25,000 more students than they are educating,” Ratlief told The Center Square. “So it gets expensive to maintain buildings when they're not full to the capacity that they were intended and built for.”

According to CSI Arizona’s data, that expense could go up soon, with the average Mesa resident getting an annual $170 increase on their property tax bill if Prop. 419 passes.

One thing that Mesa has going for it, in Ratlief’s opinion, is the companion proposition, Prop. 420, which would sell five of the district’s administrative facilities.

Such a move is the wiser, first step in closing funding loopholes, Ratlief said, even though there are no details online about how much the district expects to generate from the sales.

“it's really hard to maintain these buildings that get to be expensive as they age and to drive money into teacher salaries, if you're trying to hold on to real estate that you cannot fill,” Ratlief said.

Declining enrollment

When it comes to declining enrollment, Mesa’s far from the only district nationally with that problem.

Nationally, K-12 enrollment numbers are roughly 2.5% lower across the country than they were before the pandemic, with a further 5% drop projected by 2031.

Chris Thomas, who serves as the Goldwater Institute’s director of legal strategy for education policy, told The Center Square that Mesa would be better off financially if the city and district broadened their facility sales in the future.

Doing so would allow the large district to resolve the capital constraints that it's trying to address via a bond measure, Thomas said, while helping fill schools that are likely well below their intended capacity figures on a yearly basis.

“(Mesa’s) probably operating a lot of schools at less than capacity, and probably many schools below a capacity where they economically can be run at any kind of efficient level,” Thomas told The Center Square. “It wouldn't solve all their problems, but it would address some of their problems with just downsizing in a very strategic way.”