Cook Report: Democrats flip House, 237 seat majority

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(The Center Square) - With slightly more than a week until the 2026 midterm elections, political analysts are projecting Democrats will flip as many as 22 seats to gain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

The Cook Political Report, an aggregate of forecasting models, predicted Democrats could secure as many as 237 seats in the House, well above the 218 needed to form a majority. Analysts at the report rated 220 seats as solid, likely or lean Democrat as polls increasingly move against Republicans across the country.

Analysts said Democrats are expected to flip between 12 and 22 seats in the House. The party currently holds 215 seats in the lower chamber.

Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, predicted Democrats would take between 225 and 232 seats in the House. He modeled his findings off previous midterm election cycles to base his range for Democrat winnings.

“If you assume 100% partisanship voting, you come within a few seats of the actual outcome,” Olsen told The Center Square. “Partisanship is the overwhelming consideration that determines who wins, not the individual candidate’s qualities.”

The Cook Political Report moved 19 races across the country in favor of Democrats. Six of the 19 races were moved from the “toss up” category to the “lean Democrat” category as momentum for the party continues to grow amid rising costs tied to the U.S. military conflict in Iran.

Races in Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, Texas, Virginia and Wisconsin were moved out of the “toss up” category and into the “lean Democrat” category.

In Arizona’s 6th Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Juan Ciscomani, R-Ariz., is facing a difficult political environment due to the community's closeness to the U.S.-Mexico border. His opponent, JoAnna Mendoza, has slammed Trump’s endorsement of Ciscomani and made it central to her campaign.

“This endorsement isn’t earned by fighting for Southern Arizona,” Mendoza wrote on social media. “It’s earned by being the perfect puppet, and Juan Ciscomani has mastered that role.”

Ciscomani has touted his record as an independent candidate who will go against Republicans if reelected.

“Getting things done means working across the aisle, finding common ground and delivering real results,” Ciscomani wrote on social media.

In Colorado’s 8th Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Gabe Evans is fighting Democratic challenger Manny Rutinel. The district voted for Trump in 2024 after electing Biden in 2020. The Cook Report cited these swings as central for moving the race in favor of Democrats.

North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District also moved in favor of Democrats as Republican Jennifer Balkcom faces off against Democrat Jamie Ager. The district has been embroiled in controversy after Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards announced he was not running for reelection following a House Ethics Committee report and chamber censure.

“With Republicans all but conceding the Senate race, there’s even less of an effort to turn out GOP voters in western North Carolina, which is trending Democrats’ way thanks to population growth in and around Asheville,” wrote Erin Covey, an analyst at the Cook Political Report.

Covey's statement of concession do not align with efforts by Republican Senate candidate Michael Whatley's campaign. In a digital interview with The Center Square following strategy moves by big-money super political action committees, campaign spokesman D.J. Griffin said his team is doubling down on winning. To that point, second-term Republican President Donald Trump was in the Coastal Plains on Tuesday and Vice President J.D. Vance in the mountains on Monday for Whatley and Republican congressional candidates.

A poll released this week also shows Whatley chopping 4.8% into Democrat Roy Cooper's lead.

In Texas, where Republican redistricting was meant to help the party pick up seats, Cook moved the 34th congressional district in Democrats; favor. The race between Rep. Vincente Gonzalez, D-Texas, and Democratic nominee Eric Flores is close, which is making itself apparent in the campaign material.

“Just this week, Flores attempted to get a billboard taken down that promotes his endorsement from Trump and says that he ‘supports ICE,’” Covey wrote.

The race between Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., and Democrat Elaine Luria is also seeing a move against Republicans.

“Though Kiggans won reelection by four points, Trump only carried the Virginia Beach district by a fraction of a percentage point,” Covey wrote.

Wisconsin’s third congressional district was also moved out of the “toss up” category as Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden and Democrat Rebecca Cooke battle for control of the seat. The U.S. military conflict in Iran and cuts to healthcare programs are central in the messaging between candidates.

Additionally, races in Kentucky’s sixth congressional district and Texas’ 35th district, moved into the “toss up” category.

In Kentucky, Republican Ralph Alvarado and Democrat Zach Dembo are duking it out as polling inches closer in favor of Democrats.

“Though this Lexington-based district voted for Trump by 16 points in 2024, it’s more elastic than other districts of a similar partisan lean — Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear carried the district by double digits in 2019 and 2023. Dembo, a former federal prosecutor and former aide to the governor, is in now an increasingly good position to flip this seat,” Covey said.

Olsen said congressional districts in areas where Republicans should be leading have taken sharp hits over rising gas prices amid the U.S. military conflict in Iran.

“So far, we are seeing regional weaknesses that even when Republicans are leading, they are not leading by the margin that they should be leading in these agricultural heavy areas,” Olsen told The Center Square.